Corrected the assessment of the June 2025 Iran strikes after US intelligence assessments contradicted the official account. Added the February 2026 war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the depletion of American interceptor stocks. Added Section 224 of the US defense bill. Removed the three-scenario table as insufficiently grounded. Split the conclusion into two parts: what the data say, and the author’s reading.
Added six sections: the demographic balance between the river and the sea, economic control, the human and urban cost, regional normalization, the battle of narratives, and the transformation of American politics. Added the annexation track and settler violence. Published the full English version.
First version: seven pillars, the era matrix, Ben-Gurion’s pillars, and the historical comparisons.