Two separate rounds of strikes, not one: the twelve-day war of June 2025, then a much larger war beginning February 28, 2026 (roughly 900 strikes in 12 hours, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and about 40 senior commanders, lasting about 40 days until an April 8, 2026 ceasefire). "What the record says" below assesses what remained of the program after the second round, not just the first. Full detail on both rounds is in the military pillar section of the study.
The White House: Iran’s capabilities were "crushed," and talk of rebuilding them is "delusional." The Pentagon accused the New York Times of acting as a "public relations agent" for Tehran. This is the position announced after both rounds together; after June 2025 alone, both programs had already been declared destroyed, before the February 2026 war had even happened.
White House · PentagonClassified US intelligence assessments reported by the New York Times and Washington Post in May 2026: Iran retained about 70% of its missile arsenal and roughly 70 to 75% of its mobile launchers, regained access to 30 of 33 missile facilities along Hormuz, and returned about 90% of its underground storage and launch pads to operation. The assessment concluded that planners had overestimated the damage and underestimated the speed of restoration.
US intel via NYT · May 2026The significance is not only that the numbers conflict, but that the source contradicting the official American account is American intelligence itself. When an account conflicts with the assessment produced by the same government, it is the account that comes into doubt.